California’s Bold Move: Paving the Way for 100% Zero-Emission New Car Sales by 2035

SACRAMENTO – In a landmark decision that is poised to reshape the automotive landscape, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) has officially adopted the Advanced Clean Cars II rule. This groundbreaking regulation sets California firmly on a trajectory towards a future dominated by zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), encompassing cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs. The ambitious goal? To ensure that by 2035, every new car sold in California will be a zero-emission vehicle, including plug-in hybrids, marking a monumental shift in New Car Sales and environmental policy.

This transformative rule provides a detailed year-by-year roadmap, escalating the percentage of new ZEV sales required in the state. It effectively codifies the ambitious targets previously outlined in Governor Newsom’s Executive Order N-79-20, translating aspirational goals into concrete regulatory action.

“California is once again taking the lead, not just in the nation but globally, with a regulation that establishes ambitious yet attainable benchmarks for ZEV sales,” stated CARB Chair Liane Randolph. “This rapid acceleration in the adoption of ZEVs on our roads will generate substantial reductions in both emissions and pollution for all Californians, particularly those communities located near major roadways that disproportionately suffer from persistent air pollution. This regulation is innovative in its strategies to expand ZEV accessibility across diverse communities and is reinforced by the Governor’s ZEV budget, which strategically allocates incentives to broaden ZEV availability to all economic groups within California, including those with low and moderate incomes.”

While numerous regions and countries have articulated goals for phasing out internal combustion engine vehicles, California’s regulation stands out as the most assertive in establishing a definitive and progressive mechanism to achieve mandated zero-emission vehicle sales targets. These targets escalate annually, culminating in the complete transition to 100% ZEV new car sales by 2035. This timeline, though ambitious, is designed to be achievable: by the time children born this year reach middle school, the new car market in California will primarily offer zero-emission vehicles, with only a limited selection of plug-in hybrids available. The regulation also prioritizes equity in this transition, ensuring that the benefits of zero-emission vehicles are accessible to all, and provides consumers with assurance regarding the long-term emissions performance, quality, and durability of these vehicles and their batteries.

Breathing Easier: The Clean Air and Climate Advantages of Zero-Emission New Car Sales

Transportation remains the single largest contributor to both global warming emissions and air pollution within California. This pioneering regulation is designed to significantly curtail emissions originating from cars and light trucks, directly addressing these critical environmental challenges.

By 2037, the regulation is projected to achieve a 25% reduction in smog-forming pollution from light-duty vehicles, bringing California closer to meeting stringent federal air quality standards. This improvement will be felt across the state, but it will be particularly beneficial for communities that are environmentally and economically vulnerable, often located near freeways and heavily trafficked areas. From 2026 through 2040, the cumulative health benefits resulting from this regulation are estimated to be worth nearly $13 billion. This includes the prevention of approximately 1,290 cardiopulmonary deaths, 460 fewer hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, and 650 fewer emergency room visits for asthma.

The advantages of this regulation will compound over time. By 2030, it is projected that 2.9 million fewer new gasoline-powered vehicles will be sold in California, a figure that rises to 9.5 million fewer conventional vehicles by 2035. By 2040, greenhouse gas emissions from cars, pickups, and SUVs are expected to be halved. Between 2026 and 2040, the cumulative reduction in climate-warming pollution from these vehicles is estimated to reach 395 million metric tons. This is equivalent to the greenhouse gas emissions produced by burning 915 million barrels of petroleum.

Navigating the Requirements: What Automakers Need to Know About New Car Sales in California

The new regulation mandates an accelerated schedule for automakers to deliver an increasing percentage of zero-emission light-duty vehicles each year, commencing with the 2026 model year. The sales targets for new ZEVs and PHEVs begin at 35% in 2026, increase to 68% by 2030, and ultimately reach 100% by 2035, fundamentally transforming the landscape of new car sales in California.

Eligibility and Credits: Shaping the Future of New Car Sales

It’s crucial to understand that this regulation applies to automakers, not car dealerships, and specifically governs the sales of new vehicles. It does not impact existing gasoline-powered vehicles already on the road, which will remain legal to own and operate.

The regulation recognizes plug-in hybrid, full battery-electric, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles as qualifying technologies towards meeting an automaker’s requirements. For PHEVs to qualify, they must achieve an all-electric driving range of at least 50 miles under real-world conditions. Furthermore, automakers can fulfill a maximum of 20% of their overall ZEV requirement using PHEVs.

Battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles must meet more stringent criteria to qualify under the program. These include a minimum driving range of 150 miles, fast-charging capability, inclusion of a charging cord, and adherence to new warranty and durability standards.

Ensuring Longevity and Value: Enhanced Durability and Warranty for New Car Sales

Recognizing the importance of consumer confidence and long-term value, the new regulation incorporates robust measures to ensure that ZEVs can serve as reliable replacements for gasoline vehicles, maintain their market value, and provide used car buyers with assurance of quality and reduced emissions.

By the 2030 model year, the rules stipulate that vehicle batteries must retain at least 80% of their original electric range for 10 years or 150,000 miles. This requirement is phased in, starting at 70% for model years 2026 through 2029. From the 2031 model year onwards, individual vehicle battery packs are warranted to maintain 75% of their energy capacity for eight years or 100,000 miles, also phased in from 70% for model years 2026 through 2030. ZEV powertrain components will be covered by a warranty for a minimum of three years or 50,000 miles.

Environmental Justice at the Forefront of New Car Sales Policy

As previously mentioned, the regulation is designed to deliver substantial emission reductions across California, with a particular focus on benefiting communities that are disproportionately affected by air pollution due to their proximity to roadways. The durability and warranty provisions are instrumental in establishing a viable and dependable used ZEV market, ensuring the long-term sustainability of emission reductions. The regulation also incorporates a credit system for automakers who take proactive steps to enhance ZEV access for low-income households and residents of disadvantaged communities, promoting equity in the transition to electric vehicles and new car sales.

Expanding Access: Making Zero-Emission New Car Sales Accessible to All Californians

Governor Newsom and the California Legislature have demonstrated a strong commitment to supporting the transition to ZEVs through significant financial investments. Approximately $2.7 billion has been allocated in fiscal year 2022-23, with a total of $3.9 billion over three years, to bolster ZEV adoption and promote clean mobility options, particularly for environmentally and economically burdened communities. These programs directly complement the new regulation by increasing ZEV accessibility for all Californians, including those with moderate and low incomes. Key initiatives include:

The Governor’s ZEV budget earmarks $400 million over three years for the statewide expansion of the Clean Cars 4 All program and a range of clean transportation equity projects. An additional $525 million is allocated to the Clean Vehicle Rebate Project (CVRP). Furthermore, $300 million is dedicated to expanding charging infrastructure, especially to address the needs of consumers who may not have access to home charging.

The Economic Advantages: Consumer Savings in New Car Sales and Ownership

Owners of full battery-electric vehicles are already experiencing significant savings in operating and maintenance costs compared to traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. This is primarily due to lower fuel costs – charging an EV at home is approximately half the cost of gasoline for the same distance traveled – and battery-electric vehicles can reduce maintenance expenses by as much as 40%.

CARB’s analysis suggests that battery-electric vehicles are likely to reach cost parity with conventional vehicles by 2030. By 2035, consumers are projected to realize as much as $7,900 in savings on maintenance and operational costs over the first 10 years of ownership. Even owners of 2026 model year battery-electric vehicles will see substantial 10-year savings, although slightly less.

Complementary Standards: Stringent Measures for Conventional Car Sales

Building on the foundation of the original Advanced Clean Cars rules, ACC II includes updated regulations for light- and medium-duty internal combustion engine vehicles. These measures are designed to minimize the air quality impacts from gasoline-powered vehicles and ensure that the significant emission reductions achieved through ZEV adoption are not offset by increased emissions from remaining conventional vehicles. These low-emission vehicle standards deliver tangible real-world emission benefits and prevent potential emission backsliding by excluding ZEVs from the emissions baseline used to calculate new vehicle fleet-average emissions. The regulation also tightens the permissible exhaust emissions under more realistic driving conditions and reduces evaporative emissions.

Policy Context: The Drive Towards a Zero-Emission Future for New Car Sales

Transportation accounts for approximately 50% of greenhouse gas emissions in California (including fuel production emissions) and 80% of the state’s air pollutants.

The ACC II regulation represents the second phase of the Advanced Clean Cars Program, initially adopted by CARB in 2012. The program was conceived to align California’s passenger vehicle requirements with federal air quality standards and to support the state’s AB 32 statute, which aimed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions back to 1990 levels by 2020 – a goal achieved in 2016 due to a suite of emissions mitigation programs.

The ACC II regulation is a critical instrument in achieving the SB 32 target of further reducing greenhouse gases by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030, while also realizing Governor Newsom’s 2035 goal of ending the sale of new internal-combustion engine passenger vehicles. Eliminating the sale of fossil fuel-powered vehicles is a cornerstone of California’s broader strategy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 or sooner.

Expanding the Impact: California’s Influence on New Car Sales Across Other States

States that currently adhere to California’s vehicle emissions rules are anticipated to adopt these regulations through their own rule-making processes, thereby extending the clean air and climate benefits of the regulation beyond California’s borders. These states collectively represent approximately 40% of the nation’s new car sales, signifying the potential for a widespread transformation of the automotive market and a significant shift towards zero-emission new car sales nationwide.

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