Rob Gronkowski, widely known as “Gronk,” enjoyed a career with the New England Patriots from 2010 to 2018 that stands as one of the most dynamic and celebrated in NFL history. His partnership with quarterback Tom Brady was particularly legendary. This article delves into Rob Gronkowski’s career stats, specifically examining how his presence impacted the Patriots’ offensive performance and Tom Brady’s statistics. Building upon the analytical framework of Adam Harstad, we will explore the Patriots’ performance with and without Gronk during his prime years to truly understand “The Gronk Effect.”
To properly assess Gronk’s impact, we will focus on the core of his career, excluding his rookie year in 2010 when he was still developing and his final, injury-hampered season in 2018. During his peak seasons, Gronkowski was consistently a game-changing force when healthy. The seasons 2011, 2014, and 2015 saw Gronkowski at his healthiest and most dominant, earning unanimous first-team All-Pro selections.
For a detailed “With Or Without You” (WOWY) analysis, the seasons 2012, 2013, 2016, and 2017 provide the most insightful data. Let’s examine each of these seasons to quantify the impact of Rob Gronkowski’s career stats on the Patriots’ offensive metrics.
2012 Season: Gronk’s Impact on Points and Passing
In 2012, the Patriots played 10 games with Gronkowski and 8 without him, culminating in an AFC Championship Game loss to the Baltimore Ravens in a game where Gronk was absent. Here’s a comparison of the stats:
With Gronk (10 Games):
- Winning Percentage: 0.700
- Points Per Game: 35.8
- First Downs Per Game: 28.4
- Passing First Downs Per Game: 16.4
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A): 7.73
Without Gronk (8 Games):
- Winning Percentage: 0.750
- Points Per Game: 31.6
- First Downs Per Game: 26.5
- Passing First Downs Per Game: 15.8
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A): 6.84
The data reveals a significant drop-off in offensive output without Gronk. The Patriots averaged 4.2 fewer points per game and a decrease of 0.89 ANY/A when Gronkowski was not on the field. While the win percentage was marginally better without him, the offensive firepower clearly diminished.
2013 Season: Offensive Decline Without Gronk
The 2013 season saw Gronkowski play in only 7 games, with the Patriots playing 11 without him. Again, the season ended in an AFC Championship Game loss without Gronk, this time to the Denver Broncos. The statistical contrast is even more pronounced in this year:
With Gronk (7 Games):
- Winning Percentage: 0.714
- Points Per Game: 32.0
- Points Allowed Per Game: 27.1
- First Downs Per Game: 26.6
- Passing First Downs Per Game: 16.3
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A): 6.98
Without Gronk (11 Games):
- Winning Percentage: 0.727
- Points Per Game: 25.4
- Points Allowed Per Game: 17.8
- First Downs Per Game: 21.3
- Passing First Downs Per Game: 12.3
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A): 5.64
The offensive decline is stark. Without Gronk, the Patriots’ scoring dropped by 6.6 points per game, and they gained 5.3 fewer first downs per game. The passing offense suffered a significant setback, with ANY/A decreasing by 1.34. Interestingly, the defense appeared to allow fewer points in games without Gronk, a trend that emerges as somewhat of an anomaly.
2016 Season: Brady’s Excellence and Gronk’s Explosiveness
2016 was a unique season, with Tom Brady suspended for the first four games. Of the remaining games, Gronkowski played in 5 and missed 10, including the Super Bowl victory. Despite missing Gronk for a majority of the season, the Patriots still achieved Super Bowl success. However, examining the stats during the games Gronk did play reveals his exceptional impact:
With Gronk (5 Games):
- Record: 4-1
- Points Per Game: 32.0
- Points Allowed Per Game: 20.4
- First Downs Per Game: 23.6
- Passing First Downs Per Game: 13.8
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A): 9.93
Without Gronk (10 Games):
- Record: 10-0
- Points Per Game: 30.4
- Points Allowed Per Game: 14.8
- First Downs Per Game: 24.0
- Passing First Downs Per Game: 14.9
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A): 7.67
While the Patriots were undefeated without Gronk, driven partly by their defense, the offensive stats highlight Gronk’s explosiveness. The team averaged 1.6 more points per game and a substantial 2.26 higher ANY/A when Gronkowski was on the field. In these 5 games, Brady’s performance was statistically phenomenal, demonstrating the potent connection between Brady and Gronk. During these games, the offense achieved 20 touchdowns with only 18 punts and one interception, an unsustainable yet telling pace.
2017 Season: A Significant Drop Despite Small Sample Size
In 2017, Gronkowski played in 16 games and missed only 3. The Patriots reached the Super Bowl again but lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, despite a strong offensive showing including Gronkowski’s performance. The WOWY stats again illustrate a noticeable difference:
With Gronk (16 Games):
- Winning Percentage: 0.813
- Points Per Game: 30.4
- First Downs Per Game: 25.8
- Passing First Downs Per Game: 15.7
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A): 8.22
Without Gronk (3 Games):
- Record: 2-1
- Points Per Game: 21.0
- First Downs Per Game: 19.7
- Passing First Downs Per Game: 13.3
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A): 5.81
The sample size of non-Gronk games in 2017 is small, but the drop in offensive production is significant: 9.4 fewer points per game and a 2.42 decrease in ANY/A. Brady’s performance in the two regular-season losses without Gronk was notably weaker, suggesting a correlation between Gronk’s absence and offensive struggles, even if the sample size warrants caution in drawing definitive conclusions.
Rob Gronkowski with the New England Patriots, highlighting his impactful career stats and dominance on the field.
Gronk WOWY Stats: A Summary of Dominance
The consistent trend across these seasons clearly indicates the significant positive impact of Rob Gronkowski on the New England Patriots offense. While the team could still achieve victories without him, particularly in 2016, the offensive efficiency, scoring, and passing game metrics demonstrably declined when Gronk was absent. His career stats underscore his value as a game-changing tight end who elevated the performance of Tom Brady and the entire Patriots offense.
Defining a “Gronk Game”
To ensure accuracy in this analysis of Rob Gronkowski’s career stats, it’s important to define what constitutes a “Gronk game.” A “Gronk game” is defined as a game where Gronkowski played a significant portion of the offensive snaps, typically over 67%. Games missed due to injury or suspension are classified as “non-Gronk games.” There are specific borderline cases, such as games where Gronk played a limited number of snaps due to injury or as a late-season tune-up. These instances are carefully considered and categorized based on the context of the game and Gronkowski’s participation level, as detailed in the original article’s methodology. This meticulous approach ensures that the analysis accurately reflects the impact of Gronkowski’s presence when he was a significant contributor to the Patriots’ offense.
